My Analysis on the TX-SEN Primary Race;
Burka on Late Filings and Top Primaries;
Education will be Major Issue in TX-GOV Race;
1996 Stockman Profile Re-surfaces
Good morning from Austin.
A lot has happened since our last brief.
Here we go:
STOCKMAN V. CORNYN BEGINS
On Monday night U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX), who represents Texas’ 36th congressional district and was elected to Congress in 2012 after winning a GOP primary runoff (he served one term in Congress in the 1990s), shocked nearly everyone and filed for the U.S. Senate with one minute left before the filing deadline.
The filing garnered a lot of coverage.
Here’s a sampling:
> Here is today’s AP story on the race.
> TIME Magazine’s Jay Newton-Small reports on the primary.
> DMN’s Todd Gillman reports on the latest developments.
> Chron’s Mike Tolson reports (behind paywall) on the hurdles Stockman faces.
> The Hill spoke to several lawmakers who think Sen. Cornyn will win.
> Roll Call’s Kyle Trygstad and Abby Livingston report on the six hurdles that Stockman faces.
> TT’s Aman Batheja reports that a couple candidates for Stockman’s congressional seat appear to have seen it coming.
Please note: Let me first say that Texans for Senator John Cornyn, in a twist of fate, happen to be this week’s advertiser. They have also advertised in the past for one week. Please take that into consideration as you read my analysis, however, to paraphrase our Governor, if you think you can buy me for $500, I’m offended.
My view: Steve Stockman is not Ted Cruz. John Cornyn is not David Dewhurst. Stockman has 69 days before early voting begins and as of Sept. 30 he had $30k in the bank and $160k in debt. He has to build a campaign team, raise at least $3 million ($50k/day or so), travel the state relentlessly, build a statewide organization (ballot draws begin early next week) and also sleep a few hours a night. Texas is too big to run a statewide campaign on the fly, with no preparation, against an incumbent who has a $7 million head start. Sen. Cornyn has or will have pro life and gun rights endorsements and already has a complete campaign team and statewide organization. Stockman will be an irritant to Cornyn, no question. Stockman is a strong conservative with tea party appeal and a knack for using social media to anger liberals. We will know in the next fundraising report if Stockman can be financially credible, which I doubt. The 2014 cycle in Texas already has competitive races for five statewide offices on the Republican side, so there’s a lot of noise, a lot of campaigns advertising and a lot of competition for oxygen. operatives, donors, activists and supporters. This race will be interesting to watch but I suspect the outcome will never really be in doubt.
Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka catches you up quickly with this blog post on late filings.
The most significant late filings in the Republican primary:
(1) Steve Stockman vs. John Cornyn (U.S. Senator)
(2) Robert Talton vs. Nathan Hecht (Chief Justice, Texas Supreme Court)
(3) Matt Beebe vs. Joe Straus (House District 121)
(4) John Ratcliffe v. Ralph Hall (U.S. House District 4)
(5) Mike Canon vs. Kel Seliger (Texas Senate District 31)
Stockman is about as far-right as far-right can get in this state. Cornyn can swamp him with money, but the tea party will be out in force against Cornyn.
Talton is a conservative trial lawyer who is famous for once having stationed a DPS officer outside his door to prevent gays from entering his office. He is a threat to Hecht (the stationing of the DPS officer outside his door notwithstanding).
Beebe vs. Straus is a rematch from 2010. Straus won easily the first time around and should prevail again.
Ratcliff is a former U.S. attorney; Hall is the longest-serving member of Congress.
Canon was recruited against Seliger by Michael Quinn Sullivan. This race is a grudge match with Sullivan taking on Seliger.
Your absolute must clicks:
> Education is emerging as a major issue in the Governor’s race. Here’s Paul Weber’s AP story on the issue. Here’s TT’s Morgan Smith’s story for Texas Weekly.
> A timely link to a Feb 1996 Mimi Schwartz profile of Steve Stockman. (h/t @amanbatheja)
– James Oberwetter nominates Speaker of the House Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) for DMN’s “Texan of the Year.”
– State Sen. John Carona (R-Dallas) has had an ethics complaint filed against him and he says it has no merit.
2013 / 2014 / 2016:
– Houston Mayor Annise Parker delivered a speech at the National Press Club in Washington, DC and said gubernatorial candidate and State Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth) faces “long odds” for Governor.
– Republican Matt Bebee is again running in the Republican primary against Speaker of the House Joe Straus.
– Republican San Antonio City Councilman Carlton Soules is resigning (behind paywall) to run for Bexar County Judge.
– TM’s Paul Burka weighs in on Attorney General candidate and State Rep. Dan Branch’s campaign.
– Burka also notes that Wendy Davis’ campaign is ramping up.
Other stories of interest:
– A Democratic congressman says U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) ‘got an earful’ on the trip to Nelson Mandela’s funeral.
– Johnny Cash’s long lost album to be released next spring.
– Well played, guy in Austin airport.
– American football, Olympic medal sport?
– A handful of bettors who placed 1000-1 Auburn bets before the season are sitting pretty.
– This won’t help Jameis Winston’s Heisman chances.
Your Daily Source of Inspiration:
– A must read about a first year high school football coach and how the season ended.
BLOGS (from the left)
BLOGS (from the right)